" We predict that future administrations will have to cancel the Kaliwa and Chico projects and default on the Chinese loans, which will result in the Philippines being sued by China in arbitration proceedings that have been designed to favor the creditor."

Read the rest of the article from Rappler.

Who owns the Spratlys? Palace invokes pro-PHL arbitral ruling vs. China

Malacañang on Friday for the first time invoked the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China's historic claims over most of the South China Sea including the Philippines exclusive economic zone.

President Rodrigo Duterte's spokesman Salvador Panelo made the remark after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the Spratly Islands or Nansha, as the Chinese call them, were part of Chinese territory.

GMANews Online reports.

FLASHBACK: Obama Administration in 2013 told PHL govt to shut up on China's Bullying Tactics

UPDATE 4/17/19: Del Rosario: US brokered talks to end 2012 Panatag standoff,

 Former Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario on Tuesday said for the first time that the United States played a key role in the events that led to the Philippines losing control of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal to China in 2012 and reignited the dispute in the South China Sea.

confirming what Ellen reported.

From Ellen Tordesillas: U.S to PH: stop anti-China rhetorics

Many , including high-ranking Philippine officials, like to think that increased presence of American military in the Philippines, which is a subject of talks between the two countries starting today, is a commitment by the Americans to defend the Philippines in case of an armed conflict in the West Philippine Sea, where a number of islands are being claimed wholly or partly by the Philippines, Brunei, China,Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Those who have taken these view will be disappointed because the U.S has taken a neutral position in the conflicting claims in the South China Sea (part of it is referred to as West Philippine Sea) and has always been consistent in urging for a peaceful resolution of the conflicting claims.

The Obama administration has decided to rebalance its military forces from Middle East to Asia, in what is seen by analysts as a move to contain China’s hegemony in the region.

Primarily, the U.S. wants to ensure that the sealanes are open and unhampered for international navigation.

But as former UN Representative Lauro Baja, Jr. observed, the Americans do not want to ‘vulgarize’ this objective.

In increasing its presence in Asia, the United States does not want to play referee to countries fighting over islands, rocks and shoals. “They want a stable region. They don’t want to prejudice their strategic relations with China, which is more important than claims over rocks and shoals,” Baja said.

In preparation for the implementation of their Pivot to Asia policy, senior American officials have been coming here the past months and assessing the situation. One thing that they were concerned about is the tension between the Philippines and China over the disputed islands especially Bajo de Masinloc otherwise known as Scarborough Shoal or Panatag shoal and lately the Ayungin shoal.

The Philippines has filed a suit with the UN Arbitral Court questioning China’s nine dash-line, which encompasses the whole South China Sea including several countries’ territories.

A source said some of the analysts interviewed by American officials said that the “Shame China” strategy of the Department of Foreign Affairs under Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario has contributed largely to the deteriorating relations between the Philippines and China.

Del Rosario has, several times accused China of “duplicity and intimidation.” Malacañang spokesperson Edwin Lacierda has also made sure that he is not behind in China-bashing.

In the 2010 and 2011 State-of-the Nation address by President Aquino, he had strong words against China.

In his 2011 SONA, Aquino, declared: “ There was a time when we couldn’t appropriately respond to threats in our own backyard. Now, our message to the world is clear: What is ours is ours; setting foot on Recto Bank is no different from setting foot on Recto Avenue.”

He was referring to the disputed Recto or Reed Bank near Palawan.

In his 2012 SONA, he talked lengthily about the situation in Bajo de Masinloc. He said, “We demonstrated utmost forbearance in dealing with this issue. As a sign of our goodwill, we replaced our navy cutter with a civilian boat as soon as we could. We chose not to respond to their media’s harangues. I do not think it excessive to ask that our rights be respected, just as we respect their rights as a fellow nation in a world we need to share.

“There are those who say that we should let Bajo de Masinloc go; we should avoid the trouble. But if someone entered your yard and told you he owned it, would you agree? Would it be right to give away that which is rightfully ours?”

Aquino can be stubborn. But he listens to America. Last year,a month after he withdrew all the ships from Bajo de Masinloc, he, supported by the majority of the members of his cabinet, decided to send back the ships to the area which was by then already controlled by the Chinese. Upon learning of Malacañang’s decision, the U.S. relayed the advice through defense officials that it would not be wise to send back the ships to Bajo de Masinloc. The ships were not sent back.

Our source said, two weeks before the President’s State of the Nation address, U.S. officials advised the DFA and Malacanang to tone down their anti-China rhetorics to reduce tension in the region. That explains why in last month’s SONA there was no mention, not a word, about conflict with China.

Last Aug. 2, Del Rosario, who never let any media opportunity to censure China pass, told members of the foreign correspondents association in the country, that he was not keen on guesting in their forum on the South China Sea because he was “looking for a modus vivendi with China.”

China should thank Uncle Sam.

China has made so much progress in the last 8 years under Obama seizing areas that dont belong to them, that a Trump defeat in 2020 will be welcome news to the Asian hegemon.

UPDATE: SCMP: Beijing tried to block Philippine military facilities on disputed island ‘over fears US could use them’

FLASHBACK: Duterte Says China's Xi Jinping Won't Allow His Removal From Office

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had provided him with a personal assurance that Beijing would not allow him to be removed from office.

“The assurances of Xi are very encouraging: we will not allow you to be taken out from your office and we will not allow the Philippines to go to the dogs,” Duterte said in a speech Tuesday.

 From Bloomberg. Kinda like what Russia is doing with Maduro.

FLASHBACK: Is China Helping Duterte Destroy Leila De Lima?

 From the Inquirer:

“You know I was the whipping boy of the NGOs (nongovernment organizations) and the human rights stalwarts. But you know I have a special ano kay ano, she is a government official. One day soon, I’ll have to let her go in public and I will have to destroy her in public,” he said.

When asked whom he was referring to, Duterte said: “That’s the riddle there.”

“Just wait. They might have thought that I never listened to them. So, while all the time they were also listening to what I’ve done. I’ve also been busy with the help of another country listening to them,” he said.

Rodrigo Duterte made his statement on August 12, 2016 during Obama's time, so in hindsight we can eliminate the USA as a suspect in helping Duterte illegally eavesdrop on the opposition.

Malamang China ang guilty party.

Watch the Chilling Video:

MORE: Duterte says 'sympathetic' foreign country spying on his critics

 President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday revived his claim that a foreign country “sympathetic” to him has supplied information on his critics.

Duterte said his critics such as communist leader Jose Maria Sison, the Magdalo group, and those who have been rejecting him since the May 2016 elections “have combined" in supposed destabilization efforts.

“I have the evidence. I have the conversation provided by a foreign country sympathetic to us. We don’t have that sophistication,” he said without naming his source.

CHINA!

PH and U.S. officials join hands during closing of Balikatan

China’s swarming: ‘Cabbage strategy’

A CHINESE general gave a preview way back in 2013 of how their People’s Liberation Army deploys a swarm of vessels around disputed islands in the South China Sea in what he called a “cabbage strategy” to take full control.

We were then surprised that the Chinese swarming of Pagasa island off Palawan was initially dismissed by President Duterte’s spokesman as if it were something as innocent as cruising around the block to look for a parking slot. We dug up old Postscripts on that cabbage strategy.

It was probably by force of habit of defending China that the President’s spokesman minimized the swarming – confirmed by the military and independent observers – by hundreds of militia boats around Pagasa, the main island in the cluster of isles comprising the town of Kalayaan in Palawan.

It was a good thing President Duterte, in a departure from his known pro-China bias – stepped in and warned Beijing to lay off Pagasa where there is a thriving Filipino community and a functioning municipal government.

Federico Pascual writes. Maybe too little, too late?

"China showed no unusual resistance to Vietnam’s “modest upgrades” to its facilities in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea contrary to how it responded to the Philippines’ rehabilitation efforts, analysts have observed."

Vietnam occupies 49 outposts spread across 27 features in the contested Spratly Islands, while the Philippines has 9.

“Vietnam continues quietly upgrading its facilities across the Spratlys, so far without provoking the same large-scale paramilitary response from China as Philippine upgrades have,” Washington think-tank Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative said in its latest report on the South China Sea.

From the Inquirer: Unlike PH, Vietnam’s ‘modest upgrades’ in Spratlys get no repulse from China

China: No Longer the Wave of the Future

Not too long ago the West was breezily talking of China as if the 1989 Tiananmen Square debacle and its aftermath that saw the Chinese government kill some 10,000 protesters and dissidents was a mere speed bump on the fated way to Chinese democracy and an open society. Beltway wisdom was that any year China could experience a moment akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Then status quo elite thinking in Washington was that even if the Chinese ran up huge deficits, treated their trading partners in ruthless fashion, jailed critics in a vast gulag archipelago, and mimicked the colonialism and imperialism of the former Japanese Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of the late 1930s and 1940s, Beijing, nonetheless, would inevitably translate its new affluence and self-confidence into free elections and eventual liberal society — or at least become a benign world hegemon.
After all, its high-speed rail, its solar-panel factories, and modern airports wowed American pundits — as if China offered a model of green modern authoritarianism that could supersede Neanderthal resistance to green central planners. A Chinese Carmel or Upper West Side was always proverbially right around the corner.

Just as it had been awed by Western money and technology, surely China would be even more wowed by Western magnanimity and so reciprocate by mimicking Western political and cultural institutions.

That fantasy has dissipated as Donald Trump shattered its glass veneer. The vision of China as always on the cusp of consensual government was always about as accurate as the old American dreams that the more powerful imperial Japan became in the early 20th century, the more apt Tokyo would be to assume a role as a sober and judicious Westernized protector of global norms. Again, ahistorical groupthink, fueled by globalist nonsense, simply ignored Chinese history and culture.

 Victor Davis Hanson writes.

South China Sea: Indonesia And Vietnam Prove Duterte Wrong

...standing up to China doesn’t lead to war.

UPDATE:  Indonesian navy fires shots, seizes Chinese fishing boat near disputed South China Sea

"Manila's threat to escalate isn't bluster. A multilateral alternative backed by a reinvigorated great power now challenges Beijing's bilateral bullying."

During a March 1 conference in Manila, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sketched Washington's view of Beijing's bullying, saying, "the Philippines depends on free and unobstructed access to the seas. China's island-building and military activities in the South China Sea threaten your sovereignty, security and, therefore, economic livelihood, as well as that of the U.S. ... Any armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea will trigger mutual defense obligations under Article IV of our Mutual Defense Treaty."

Pompeo didn't speak rashly. He based his statement on a 68-year-old treaty signed when Harry Truman was president and Donald Trump was 5 years old.

Austin Bay writes.

Duterte Should Cancel His Trip To China To Protest Chinese Intrusion Into PHL Waters

 He should. Enough is enough. Otso Diretso should pressure him to cancel the trip.

Teddy Boy Locsin has been talking tough recently: DFA chief not afraid of war, says China took what is our 

The U.S.Warship Enters South China Sea with Abnormal Number of Fighter Jets in a show of force.

And after sending troops to Venezuela to bolster Maduro, Russian warships visits PHL too!

Here comes Russia, the disruptor. The West Philippine Sea is crowded enough. Over 200 Chinese ships infest it, now Duterte welcomes Russia. Every drug lord needs protectors.

Russian warships arrive in the Philippines amid rising South China Sea tensions https://t.co/f914fRi8lx

— Leah Navarro (@leahnavarro) April 9, 2019

West PH Sea: China took what is ours – Locsin

The stand is that it is ours. And they took it. World's highest court ruled that. Period. Now the question is how to take it back. I personally have no fear of war. One attack on a public vessel triggers World War 3 with the USofA which is impervious to attack from Asia. https://t.co/nOtzpgw7Jr

— Teddy Locsin Jr. (@teddyboylocsin) April 9, 2019

From the Inquirer:

 The West Philippine Sea is “ours” and China “took it,” Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr. said on Wednesday.

“The stand is that it is ours. And they took it. World’s highest court ruled that. Period,” Locsin tweeted in response to a Twitter user who asked for the Department of Foreign Affairs’ (DFA) stand amid the alleged invasion of China in the West Philippine Sea.

Locsin was referring to the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which favored the Philippines after it filed a case challenging China’s sweeping claims of nearly the entire South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea.

The country’s top diplomat further said that it was now a matter of figuring out “how to take it back.”

“Now the question is how to take it back. I personally have no fear of war. One attack on a public vessel triggers World War 3 with the USofA which is impervious to attack from Asia,” he added.

Somebody should tell Duterte to tell Xi Jinping that when he visits China this month.

Richard Heydarian: Is China our ‘friend’?

From the Inquirer Opinion:

And this brings us to the almost existential question we face as a nation today: Is China our “friend”? And, accordingly, has President Duterte’s Beijing-friendly policies worked in favor of our national interest?

Since the beginning of this year, an armada of Chinese paramilitary vessels has swarmed Pag-asa Island (Thitu), which has hosted Filipino troops and civilians for more than four decades.

In many ways, this is increasingly looking like Mr. Duterte’s own version of the Scarborough Shoal crisis, except on a far worse scale.

There have been as many as 657 sightings of, and 275 individual Chinese vessels involved, in what increasingly looks like an all-out siege on Pag-asa. This is a classic Chinese “gray zone” strategy aimed at displacing other claimant states through deployment of ostensibly “fishing” vessels instead of using warships.

The armada of Chinese vessels hits four birds with one stone (or rather 275 vessels).

First, it restricts our movements in the area, including our fishermen. Second, it threatens and intimidates our supply lines and surveillance activities. Third, it spies and monitors our maintenance activities on Pag-asa. And lastly, it prevents us from building structures on Sandy Cay, a low-tide elevation within the territorial sea of Pag-asa.

Having built giant artificial islands (likely using our own soil) and fully militarized them with state-of-the-art weapons, China ultimately wants to dominate the whole South China Sea without firing a single shot. And the deployment of paramilitary forces is crucial to the fulfillment of this objective.

And yet, Mr. Duterte insists that China is a “friend,” an ally crucial for our national development goals.

 He's acting like a puppet!

In fact, the first time I heard this line from him was during a 2016 interview with China’s CCTV (Now CGTN) channel, where a reporter interviewed Mr. Duterte, Sen. Grace Poe and me on the future of Philippine-China relations after the 2016 elections.

In the video, you see a completely different Mr. Duterte. No trace of his brash, and almost crass, political lexicon. Far from an overexcited and tough-talking populist, essentially the image he has projected before much of the world over the years, what you instead see is a sober and contemplative leader.

I’ve noticed that this is the President Duterte one sees every time he visits China, a country he is set to visit for the fourth time in less than three years. During the interview, the former city mayor not only described China as a developmental partner, but also expressed a defeatist view on the South China Sea disputes.

Just months before the arbitral tribunal verdict on the South China Sea disputes came out, Mr. Duterte told the Chinese news channel: “If we cannot enforce [it], and if the United Nations cannot enforce its judgment, then what the heck?”

The message to Beijing was clear: I am willing to work with you and look at avenues of cooperation almost irrespective of the disputes in the West Philippine Sea.

Sensing our defeatism, however, China has only accelerated what former president Fidel Ramos described to me as the “creeping invasion” of the West Philippine Sea. This is why, as former ombudsman Conchita Carpio Morales said, “You are stupid if you don’t assert your rights.”

Treason, right?